CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-02-28T17:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-02-28T17:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29410/-1
CME Note: Bright CME visible in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 associated with a M1.5-class flare from AR 3590 (N19W59) starting at 2024-02-28T16:24Z. Dimming visible in SDO AIA 193, rising loops and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and flare with long-lasting post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 94/131. Not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-02-28T13:23Z to 2024-02-29T03:09Z. Arrival note: Characterized initially as a jump in Bt from around 3nT to 5nT, with more notable spikes in density, temperature, and speed from around 280 km/s to 320 km/s. Bt slowly rose to around 19nT by 2024-03-03T11:00Z with a long, sustained southward Bz reaching -16nT. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-03T08:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.67
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-03T09:14Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.5 - 3.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 38.95 hour(s)
Difference: -0.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-03-01T17:50Z
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